Monthly News Letter Chaitra 2082

 

CHAITRA 2082  (MID-MARCH – MID-APRIL 2026) Nepal Capital Markets  ·  Gold & Silver  ·  Oil Crisis  ·  US-Iran War  ·  RSP Government  ·  Economic Outlook

 

EDITOR'S NOTE Chaitra 2082 arrived carrying the weight of history and the fire of global crisis. Nepal witnessed the swearing-in of its first single-party majority Prime Minister in 27 years — Balen Shah — even as the world outside spiraled into an energy shock of historic proportions. The US-Iran war erupted on February 28, sealed off the Strait of Hormuz, sent global oil prices past $120 per barrel, and began reshaping every economic equation Nepal's new government must solve. Gold surged past $4,850 per ounce. Silver climbed 150% year-on-year. Fuel prices in Nepal broke all-time records three times in a single month. Yet amidst all this turbulence, NEPSE climbed steadily to a peak of 2,960 points — buoyed by political optimism and the strongest remittance inflows in Nepal's history. This edition documents it all.   — Editorial Desk, SS Holdings & Investment Pvt. Ltd.

 

  📊 CHAITRA 2082 — KEY METRICS DASHBOARD

NEPAL MARKET & ECONOMY NEPSE Peak (Chaitra 10) 2,960 pts All-time post-election   NEPSE Month End ~2,837 pts Chaitra 28, +2% wk   Balen Shah PM Chaitra 13 RSP 182/275 seats   Remittance FY82/83 Rs 1.449 Tn +37.7% YoY (8M)   GLOBAL COMMODITIES & ENERGY Gold Peak (Apr 8) $4,850/oz ↑ +25% YTD   Silver Peak (Apr 8) $77/oz ↑ +150% in 1yr   Brent Crude (Peak) ~$120/bbl Iran war spike   Nepal Petrol (KTM) Rs 219/L ALL-TIME HIGH

 

📈  1. NEPAL STOCK EXCHANGE (NEPSE) — CHAITRA 2082

Monthly Performance Overview

Chaitra 2082 began with the NEPSE in buoyant post-election mode, opening the month at approximately 2,877 points and continuing upward on sustained investor optimism around the RSP's landslide majority and imminent stable government formation.

The index reached a monthly peak of 2,960.40 points on Chaitra 10, 2082, with over Rs 15 billion in single-day transactions — among the highest turnover sessions of the year. The week ending Chaitra 14 saw NEPSE close at 2,950.16 points (+2.5%), with total market capitalisation growing approximately 3%.

From mid-month, the market entered a cooling phase as profit-booking intensified and fuel-price inflation concerns weighed on sentiment. On Chaitra 25, NEPSE gained 45.12 points to close at 2,802.52 — a mid-month correction of roughly 5% from the peak. The week ending Chaitra 28 saw a recovery to 2,837.77 (+2% weekly), suggesting support in the 2,800–2,850 range.

Sector Performance — Chaitra 2082

SECTOR	TREND	NOTES
Banking	Recovering	NPL concerns persist; benefiting from government stability signals
Hydropower	Strongly Bullish	RSP energy agenda; high retail interest; Shikhar listing awaited
Life Insurance	Bullish	Rs 124.72 Bn premium income; SSF institutional flows continue
Microfinance	Volatile	Speculative pressure; some counters hit upper/lower circuit daily
Development Banks	Positive	Regional development hopes buoyed by government formation
Manufacturing	Bullish	Palpa Cement listed; infrastructure spending expectations rising
Hotels & Tourism	Positive	Stability boosts tourism; HFIN actively trading post-listing
Finance Companies	Neutral	Finance index down from Nov 2024 highs; earnings under watch

 

Institutional Money Surge — Share Pledge Loans

Share pledge loans (margin lending) surpassed Rs 156.27 billion in the first eight months of FY 2082/83 — an 11.07% YoY increase. Loans above Rs 100 million grew 24.99%, confirming large-scale institutional money entering NEPSE. With interest rates in single digits, Nepal's capital market is structurally transitioning toward an institution-driven phase. Total online trading accounts have now crossed 63 lakh — up from 7.4 lakh in 2020.

 

🏛️  2. BALEN SHAH GOVERNMENT — FORMATION & MARKET IMPLICATIONS

DATE	EVENT
Chaitra 1	Election Commission submits final election results to President Ram Chandra Paudel
Chaitra 12	All newly elected MPs take oath at Federal Parliament, Singha Durbar
Chaitra 13	Balen Shah sworn in as Prime Minister — RSP majority government officially formed
Chaitra 14–16	Cabinet formation begins; Parliament's first session convened on Chaitra 16
Mandate	RSP wins 182 of 275 seats — largest parliamentary majority since 1999

 

RSP Capital Market Reform Commitments ('100 Pillars of Policy Departure')

•    Restructuring of SEBON, NEPSE, and CDSC to allow private sector participation

•    Introduction of intraday trading — same-day buy-sell cycles, multiplying daily turnover potential

•    Introduction of derivatives and commodity exchange under a Public Warehousing Act

•    Zero tolerance for insider trading — essential for institutional confidence and AML grey-list exit

•    NRN access to invest via pension funds, mutual funds, insurance, and infrastructure bonds

•    IT sector declared a National Strategic Industry — potential re-rating for tech-linked stocks

•    Cooperative and microfinance sector reforms — conditional release of jailed operators + sector oversight

 

⛽  3. OIL PRICE CRISIS — NEPAL'S FUEL COSTS HIT ALL-TIME RECORDS

The US-Iran War & Global Energy Shock

'Operation Epic Fury' — the US-Israel military strike on Iran beginning February 28, 2026 — triggered the largest oil supply disruption in global market history. Iran closed the Strait of Hormuz, halting ~20% of global oil supply. Brent crude surged from $70 to nearly $120/barrel within weeks. The IEA called it 'the greatest global energy security challenge in history.' 136 million barrels of oil were stranded in the Persian Gulf. A temporary two-week ceasefire was announced around Chaitra 22 (April 5), briefly dropping oil below $100, but talks in Islamabad collapsed by Chaitra 27–28, and the Strait remained restricted.

Nepal Oil Corporation (NOC) — Price Hike Chronology

Nepal's state oil monopoly, which sources all refined products exclusively from Indian Oil Corporation (IOC), faced fortnightly losses of Rs 14 billion (Rs 930 million/day) at the height of the crisis. The government provided a 50% exemption on customs duty and infrastructure tax on Chaitra 24, but this was insufficient to stem the losses. Three major price revisions occurred in Chaitra:

PRODUCT	BEFORE CHAITRA (KTM)	END OF CHAITRA (KTM)	TOTAL HIKE IN CHAITRA
Petrol (MS)	Rs 172/L	Rs 219/L	↑ Rs 47/L (+27%)
Diesel / Kerosene	Rs 157/L	Rs 207/L	↑ Rs 50/L (+32%)
LP Gas (14.2 kg)	Rs 1,810/cyl	Rs 2,010/cyl	↑ Rs 200/cyl (+11%)
Aviation Fuel (Dom.)	Prior level	Rs 251/L	Record high

 

Petrol at Rs 219/litre surpassed Nepal's previous all-time record of Rs 199/litre set during the Russia-Ukraine war in June 2022. Even after the final revision, NOC reported remaining biweekly losses of Rs 7.81 billion. Secondary effects include rising transport fares, food price inflation, and higher freight costs cascading across the supply chain.

 

🥇  4. GOLD & SILVER — HISTORIC GLOBAL PRICE SURGE

METAL	EARLY CHAITRA	PEAK (APR 8)	PERFORMANCE
Gold (XAU/USD)	~$4,650/oz	$4,850/oz	▲ +25% YTD
Silver (XAG/USD)	~$70/oz	$77/oz	▲ +150% in 1 Year

 

Gold surged past $4,850/oz on April 8 as the US-Iran ceasefire triggered a sharp dollar reversal and physical buying surge. JPMorgan targets $6,300/oz by year-end; a Reuters poll of 30 analysts placed median 2026 gold forecast at $4,746/oz. Silver outperformed gold with a near 7% single-session gain, its industrial uses (renewable energy, electronics) adding a structural demand tailwind. Global gold ETFs recorded 21 tonnes of net inflows in just the opening days of April — a 'notable show of support' per the World Gold Council. Nepal's non-food CPI was directly impacted by gold and silver price increases per both NRB and World Bank assessments.

 

🌐  5. GEOPOLITICS & INTERNATIONAL RELATIONS

US-Iran War — Chaitra 2082 Timeline

DATE (CHAITRA)	EVENT
Ch. 1–7	Strait of Hormuz closure fully enforced. Oil spikes to ~$120/bbl. IEA declares worst global energy crisis in history.
Ch. 8 (Mar 22)	136 million barrels of crude stranded in Gulf. Iraq and Kuwait shut in oil wells as storage fills.
Ch. 10 (Mar 24)	Goldman Sachs raises US recession probability to 30%. Bond yields surge.
Ch. 10 (Mar 24)	FT reports $580M suspicious oil futures trades 15 min before Trump's Iran negotiation delay — insider trading probe launched.
Ch. 11–12	US 10-year bond yield hits 4.46% (highest since July 2025). 30-year mortgage rate reaches 6.38%.
Ch. 22 (Apr 5)	Two-week US-Iran ceasefire announced. Gold/silver spike. Oil briefly dips below $100.
Ch. 24–25 (Apr 7–8)	Gold hits $4,850/oz. Silver hits $77. Ceasefire fragile — Israeli strikes on Lebanon continue.
Ch. 27–28 (Apr 10–11)	Islamabad talks (VP Vance vs. Iran) collapse. Hormuz remains blocked. Oil rebounds above $100.

 

Impact on Nepal

•    Petroleum: NOC fortnightly losses hit Rs 14 billion. Petrol, diesel, LPG all at historic highs.

•    Remittances: Despite Gulf conflict, Nepal received Rs 188.64 Bn in Falgun alone — resilience driven by diversification to Europe/Japan/Korea.

•    Gold/Silver Inflation: Non-food CPI pressured upward by precious metals import cost surge.

•    Gulf workers at risk: 220,000+ Indian nationals repatriated from Gulf; similar risk to Nepali workers if conflict continues.

•    India-Nepal energy link: Nepal depends 100% on IOC for fuel. India received US waiver to buy Russian oil on March 6 to stabilize its own supply.

•    China trade: Nepal's exports to China fell 53.7% in 8 months of FY82/83 — weakening bilateral trade momentum.

•    World Bank: RSP majority government explicitly cited as a 'growth catalyst' for Nepal's economic recovery.

 

🏦  6. NRB MONETARY POLICY & NEPAL MACROECONOMY

INDICATOR	VALUE	STATUS
Headline Inflation (H1 FY26)	1.7% (y/y)	Below 5% NRB ceiling
NRB Policy Rate	4.25%	Accommodative stance
Foreign Exchange Reserves	USD 20.5 Bn	~18 months of imports
Remittances (8M FY82/83)	Rs 1.449 Tn	↑ 37.7% YoY
Trade Deficit (8M)	Rs 1,098.14 Bn	↑ 11.2% YoY
Gross NPL Ratio	5.4%	Elevated — rising trend
Current Account Surplus	6.7% of GDP	Strong buffer
Share Pledge Loans	Rs 156.27 Bn	↑ 11.07% YoY

 

World Bank Nepal Development Update — April 2026 Key Findings

•    RSP majority government cited as primary catalyst for GDP growth acceleration.

•    Headline inflation hit record low of 1.7% in H1 FY26 — driven by falling food prices and favorable harvests. Fuel shock may reverse this in Baisakh.

•    Nepal's current account surplus widened to 6.7% of GDP on remittance strength.

•    Private credit growth subdued due to weak domestic demand — a structural issue the RSP reform agenda targets.

•    September 2025 Gen-Z protests caused economic losses of ~1.3% of GDP — confirming political stability's direct economic value.

 

📋  7. IPO & PRIMARY MARKET ACTIVITY — CHAITRA 2082

•    Shikhar Power Development (SKDL): Allotment of 2.76 million applicants processed in Chaitra — secondary listing eagerly awaited.

•    Sopan Pharmaceuticals Ltd: IPO shares issued to foreign Nepali employees from Chaitra 9.

•    Snow Rivers Limited: IPO open from Chaitra 9 for Taplejung/Panchthar locals and foreign Nepali employees.

•    Yambaling Hydropower Project Ltd: IPO to Sindhupalchowk locals and foreign employees from Chaitra 8.

•    Sanigad Hydro Limited: Extended local IPO window to Baisakh 7 — indicating sustained demand.

•    SEBON: Approved Rs 37 billion worth of public issues in first 8 months of FY 2082/83 — robust pipeline ahead.

•    Life Insurance Sector: Rs 124.72 billion in total premium income — a new sector record.

 

🔍  8. SS HOLDINGS ANALYSIS — CHAITRA 2082 IN REVIEW

✅  POSITIVE FACTORS •    Balen Shah government — first stable majority in 27 years •    NEPSE peak at 2,960 pts; +3% weekly gains sustained •    RSP manifesto: intraday trading, SEBON reform, NRN access •    Remittances surge to Rs 1.449 Tn (+37.7% in 8 months) •    FX reserves at USD 20.5 Bn — 18 months of import cover •    Share pledge loans at Rs 156.27 Bn — institutional entry •    Gold/silver rally benefits Nepali investors holding bullion •    World Bank explicitly flags RSP stability as growth catalyst

⚠️  RISK FACTORS •    US-Iran war energy shock — oil at $100+/barrel •    Nepal fuel prices at all-time records (petrol Rs 219/L) •    NOC losing Rs 930M/day — severe fiscal stress •    NPL ratio rising to 5.4% — banking headwind persists •    Fuel-driven inflation risk — NRB CPI ceiling may be breached •    Trade deficit widening 11.2% — import pressure on NPR •    Gulf Nepali workers at risk from regional conflict •    Reform delivery timeline under RSP still uncertain

 

🔮  9. SS HOLDINGS PREDICTIONS — BAISAKH 2082 & BEYOND

DISCLAIMER: These are SS Holdings' analytical opinions based on available data. They do not constitute investment advice. All investment decisions require individual risk assessment and due diligence.

 

NEPSE Forecast: We project NEPSE to trade in the 2,700–3,100 range in Baisakh 2082, with the base case at 2,850–3,000. The single biggest catalyst is the pace of RSP reform signals. Early announcement of intraday trading or SEBON restructuring could push the index above 3,000.

 

ASSET / SECTOR	OUTLOOK	SS HOLDINGS' RATIONALE
Gold (Global)	BULLISH	War uncertainty + Fed cut expectations + central bank buying. Target: $4,500–5,200/oz range.
Silver (Global)	BULLISH	Industrial + safe-haven dual tailwind. Could outperform gold if ceasefire holds and rate cuts materialise.
Global Oil	VOLATILE	Ceasefire fragile; Hormuz uncertain. Base case: $95–115/bbl range for Baisakh.
Nepal Fuel	CAUTIOUS	Another NOC hike likely in Baisakh if oil stays above $100. Watch for government subsidy or tax relief.
NEPSE Overall	BULLISH	Reform momentum + institutional inflows + remittance liquidity. Watch for 3,000+ if RSP delivers early.
Hydropower	STRONGLY BULLISH	RSP energy agenda + Shikhar listing + Sanigad/Beni IPOs = multi-quarter re-rating candidate.
Banking	NEUTRAL	NPL resolution critical. Q3 FY82/83 results will be the key test. Any NRB forbearance extension re-rates sector.
Manufacturing	BULLISH	Infrastructure spend, Palpa Cement listing, import-substitution policy = favorable multi-month outlook.
Remittances	STABLE	Gulf conflict resilience demonstrated; Europe/Japan/Korea corridor diversification provides buffer.
US-Iran War	WATCH	Key variable: Will Hormuz reopen before Nepal's Baisakh budget? No ceasefire = sustained fuel pressure.

 

Key Events to Watch in Baisakh 2082

•    RSP policy/budget signals — infrastructure spending targets will be directly market-moving for NEPSE.

•    NRB Q3 Monetary Policy Review — will rising fuel costs force a policy rate response?

•    Shikhar Power Development (SKDL) secondary market listing — most-watched IPO debut of the season.

•    Q3 FY2082/83 listed company results — stress-test for market optimism.

•    US-Iran ceasefire / conflict resolution — the single biggest wildcard for Nepal's inflation trajectory.

•    SEBON Dual ISIN Directive implementation — transparency reform boosts institutional confidence.

•    Baisakh 1, 2083 (New Year) — historically the first trading day of the new year sets market tone.

 

✍️  10. CLOSING REMARKS

Chaitra 2082: A month of new beginnings and ancient anxieties. Nepal's first stable majority in a generation — and the world's worst energy crisis in decades.   For Nepal's investors, Chaitra 2082 offered a masterclass in the intersection of domestic politics and global economics. The NEPSE's rise to 2,960 points demonstrated the market's hunger for stability. The fuel price crisis — with petrol hitting Rs 219/litre — demonstrated just as clearly how exposed Nepal remains to global shocks it cannot control. The new Balen Shah government inherits extraordinary opportunities and extraordinary challenges in equal measure. At SS Holdings & Investment, we believe disciplined, informed investing — built on verified data and honest analysis — is more important than ever in this environment.     SS Holdings — सूचित लगानीको लागि, विश्वसनीय विश्लेषण। Chaitra 2082  |  Kathmandu, Nepal  |  SS Holdings & Investment Pvt. Ltd.