Monthly News Letter Falgun 2082
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FALGUN 2082 (MID-FEBRUARY – MID-MARCH
2026) Nepal Capital Market | Financial Sector
| Economic Outlook |
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EDITOR'S
NOTE Falgun 2082 has been
nothing short of historic for Nepal's financial markets. The month opened
quietly with cautious trading ahead of the House of Representatives election
on Falgun 21, erupted in a record-breaking post-election rally, and closed
with a reminder that markets can give back gains quickly. This edition of the
SS Holdings & Investment Monthly Newsletter captures every major event,
analyses sector trends, and offers our forward-looking predictions for
Chaitra and beyond. We trust you will find this a valuable compass as you
navigate Nepal's evolving capital markets. — Editorial
Desk, SS Holdings & Investment Pvt. Ltd. |
📊 MARKET SNAPSHOT — FALGUN 2082
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KEY METRICS AT A GLANCE
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1. PRE-ELECTION MARKET DYNAMICS (FALGUN 1–19)
Index
Performance & Trend
Falgun 2082 began with a cautious but gradually bullish NEPSE.
The index opened the month at approximately 2,655 points (continuing from a
January 2026 close of 2,714 points) and drifted in consolidation through the
first two weeks. Investor sentiment was measured, with participants waiting to
assess the political landscape before committing to large positions.
The peak pre-election reading was 2,654.93 points recorded on
Falgun 14, 2082 — a notable technical level that analysts watched carefully. In
the four trading days immediately preceding the election (up to Falgun 19), the
NEPSE gained approximately 57.79 points across just two sessions, reflecting a
significant spike in buying interest as market participants priced in optimism.
Trading
Closure for Election
The Nepal Stock Exchange officially confirmed a multi-day
trading halt surrounding the election. The government declared public holidays
from Falgun 20–22 for election-related activities. Additionally, Falgun 23 was
a Saturday (regular weekly off), while Falgun 24 was observed as International
Women Workers' Day — a national holiday. Consequently, NEPSE was closed for
five consecutive days, with trading scheduled to resume on Monday, Falgun 25.
Investor
Sentiment & Historical Context
Market observers and analysts noted cautious optimism heading
into the election. Historical data showed that NEPSE has broadly risen during
three of the four elections held since 2008, with the 2017 election (Mangsir
2074) being the notable exception. Analysts attributed pre-election caution to
uncertainty about which party would secure a majority and who would assume the
Finance Ministry role — a position that historically has had significant
bearing on market policy.
2. FALGUN 21 ELECTION — THE POLITICAL EARTHQUAKE
The House of Representatives election on Falgun 21, 2082
(March 5, 2026) delivered a seismic political result. The Rastriya Swatantra
Party (RSP), led by Balen Shah as their candidate for Prime Minister, won a
landslide majority — the first single-party majority in Nepal's Parliament
since 1999. The traditional parties — Nepali Congress (NC) and CPN-UML —
suffered a historic setback, with NC securing approximately 17 seats and UML
trailing further behind.
Voter turnout was reported at approximately 19 million
citizens, making it one of the most participated elections in recent Nepali
history. The decisive RSP majority instantly shifted investor calculus:
political stability, long absent from Nepalese governance, was suddenly a real
and immediate prospect.
3. POST-ELECTION MARKET EXPLOSION (FALGUN 25–29)
Falgun 25:
Triple Circuit Breaker — A Historic Day
When the market reopened on Monday (Falgun 25 / March 9,
2026), what followed was described by analysts as one of the most extraordinary
single-day rallies in NEPSE's thirty-year history. The sheer force of pent-up
buying demand overwhelmed the exchange's circuit-breaker mechanisms three times
within one hour.
|
TIME |
EVENT |
INDEX LEVEL |
|
11:00 AM (Open) |
1st Circuit
Breaker (+4%) |
2,821.10 pts (+108.60 pts) —
Trading halted 20 min |
|
11:21 AM (Resumes) |
2nd Circuit
Breaker (+5%) |
2,848.22 pts (+135.72 pts) —
Trading halted 40 min |
|
12:01 PM (Resumes) |
3rd Circuit
Breaker (+6%) — FULL DAY CLOSE |
2,875.43
pts (+162.93 pts) | Turnover: Rs 55.6 Crore | 261 cos traded |
The session lasted only a combined total of a few minutes of
actual trading. All sector sub-indices closed in the green. Life insurance led
with a gain of 4.67%, followed by manufacturing & processing (5.30%) and
hotels & tourism (5.73%). Corporate Development Bank Limited and Shiva
Shree Hydropower Ltd both hit the individual upper circuit limit of 10%. A
total of 1,143,767 units of shares were transacted, worth approximately Rs 55.6
crore through 4,051 transactions — remarkable for a session that barely lasted.
Falgun 26:
Correction Sets In
The day following the historic surge saw predictable
profit-booking and correction. On Falgun 26, 2082, the NEPSE declined by
approximately 1.90%, as investors locked in gains from the previous day's
extraordinary rally. Market analysts noted this was a healthy correction and
consistent with post-circuit-breaker trading patterns globally.
Last Week of
Falgun (Falgun 27–29): Partial Recovery
The final days of Falgun saw gradual consolidation. The NEPSE
concluded the week ending Falgun 29 with a weekly gain of 3.98% and turnover of
Rs 49.51 Arba — among the highest weekly turnovers of 2082. The market
sentiment remained broadly positive as vote counts solidified RSP's majority
and analysts began pricing in the prospect of a stable, reform-minded
government.
4. IPO & PRIMARY MARKET ACTIVITY
Shikhar Power
Development — Record-Breaking IPO
The month's most talked-about primary market event was the IPO
of Shikhar Power Development Limited, which shattered Nepal's previous IPO
subscription records. The company issued 18,42,600 shares at Rs 100 par value
to the general public, with the offer open from Falgun 17 to Falgun 26, 2082.
The IPO attracted an extraordinary 2.76 million applicants — the highest number
of applicants in Nepal's IPO history. Global IME Capital Limited served as the
issue and sales manager.
Shikhar Power Development operates the 4.96 MW Bhim Khola
Small Hydropower Project in Baglung district, with the 6.05 MW Lower Bhim Khola
Cascade Project under construction. The record-breaking subscription reflects
the ongoing intense retail investor appetite for hydropower stocks in Nepal.
Palpa Cements
Industries Limited — IPO Allotment
On Falgun 29, 2082, Palpa Cements Industries Limited (a
subsidiary of RMC Group, manufacturers of Tansen Cement) completed the
allotment of its 45,00,000 IPO shares to the general public. Due to massive
oversubscription, the lottery-based allotment resulted in 4,50,000 lucky
applicants each receiving 10 units of shares.
Other IPO
& Listing Activity
•
Hotel Forest Inn Limited (HFIN) IPO shares were
officially listed on NEPSE, with trading commencing from Falgun 26 / March 12,
2026.
•
Solu Hydropower Limited shares were listed on NEPSE
during Falgun, with market participants keenly watching the opening price
range.
•
Sopan Pharmaceuticals Limited announced it would be
issuing IPO shares to Nepalese employed abroad starting Chaitra 09.
•
Snow Rivers Limited and Yambaling Hydropower Project
Limited announced upcoming IPO issuances to locals and foreign Nepali employees
in Chaitra.
•
Kalinchowk Hydropower Limited and Appolo Hydropower
Limited closed their localised IPO windows (to project-affected residents)
during Falgun.
•
Taksar Pikhuwa Khola Hydropower Limited closed its
foreign Nepali employee IPO tranche during Falgun.
5. BANKING SECTOR & MONETARY POLICY
NRB Mid-Term
Monetary Policy Review
Nepal Rastra Bank (NRB) was in the process of preparing its
mid-term review of the Monetary Policy for fiscal year 2082/83 during Falgun.
As per the Monetary Policy Formulation Procedure, the central bank is mandated
to publish quarterly and half-yearly reviews within 45 days of the end of each
review period. Financial sector participants were watching the review closely
for signals on the policy rate, liquidity management, and credit growth
targets.
Interest Rate
Announcements
Agricultural Development Bank Limited (ADBL) published revised
interest rates effective from Falgun 1, 2082 (February 13, 2026), covering both
deposit and lending products. Several other BFIs (Banks and Financial
Institutions) similarly revised their deposit and lending rates during Falgun,
with Narayani Development Bank publishing its new rate schedule effective from
Chaitra 1, 2082.
Banking Sector
Credit Quality Concerns
The banking sector continued to face headwinds from rising
Non-Performing Loans (NPLs). Commercial banks' NPL ratio stood at 4.86% in the
first quarter of FY 2082/83 — an elevated level that has been dampening banking
stock valuations throughout the year. The Banking Index closed February at
1,370.6 points, down from 1,385 points in January.
CDS Dual ISIN
Proposal
CDS and Clearing Limited announced plans to introduce a dual
International Securities Identification Number (ISIN) system to prevent the
misleading sale of promoter shares to general investors. The mechanism,
included in the proposed Dematerialization Operation Directive, 2082 (already
submitted to SEBON for approval), aims to strengthen transparency and legal
protections for retail investors in the secondary market.
Real Estate
Sector Regulation
The Department of Land Management and Archives announced a
major reform: only licensed real estate companies will be allowed to facilitate
property transactions in major urban centers, effective Falgun 25. The
department had already authorized 36 companies to operate under this new
framework. This reform is expected to have ripple effects on real estate
company stocks listed on NEPSE.
6. INSURANCE SECTOR & OTHER KEY EVENTS
Life Insurance
Life insurance was the standout sector on the post-election
rally day, gaining 4.67% in a truncated session. Life insurance companies
collectively generated Rs 111.05 billion in premium income during the first
seven months of FY 2082/83, reflecting continued expansion in insurance
penetration across Nepal.
Rastriya Jeewan Beema Company Limited announced its 2nd Annual
General Meeting (AGM) scheduled for Chaitra 27, 2082.
Microfinance
The microfinance sector showed mixed performance. While
post-election euphoria lifted microfinance indices broadly, specific concerns
remain about the sector's exposure to rural credit stress. Analysts continue to
recommend caution on highly-priced microfinance scrips, noting that fundamental
earnings have lagged speculative valuations in several counters.
Social
Security Fund Milestone
The Social Security Fund (SSF) reached a historic milestone
during Falgun, accumulating total contributions exceeding Rs 102 billion. As of
Falgun 10, the fund held Rs 102.54 billion, reflecting steady growth since its
operational launch in Mangsir 2075 BS. The expanding contributor base signals
the gradual institutionalization of Nepal's contributory social protection
system — and represents a growing pool of long-term institutional capital that
could eventually invest in capital markets.
New Margin
Trading Directive 2082
During Falgun, the new Margin Trading Directive 2082 was
formally adopted. This regulatory update governs how investors can leverage
borrowed capital to trade securities, with implications for market liquidity
and leverage risk management. The directive is expected to both expand market
participation and introduce greater oversight of leveraged positions.
Machhapuchchhre
Capital — Mutual Fund Update
Machhapuchchhre Capital Limited published a notice regarding
revised online trading times for its open-ended mutual fund, Machhapuchchhre
SIP Yojana — an indication of continued growth in Nepal's emerging mutual fund
industry.
7. DIGITAL TRADING & INVESTOR GROWTH
Nepal's retail investor base has undergone a structural
transformation. Online trading accounts have grown from approximately 7.4 lakh
in 2020 to over 63 lakh by early 2026 — an eight-fold increase in six years.
This explosion in retail participation has fundamentally changed NEPSE's
trading dynamics: daily turnover is now routinely in multi-billion rupee ranges
during peak sessions, and IPOs regularly attract millions of applicants.
The flip side of this democratisation of investing has been
heightened volatility, particularly in speculative segments such as
microfinance and small hydropower companies. Emotional trading behaviour,
driven by social media and retail herd mentality, continues to create both
opportunities and risks in the market.
8. EDITOR'S ANALYSIS — WHAT DROVE FALGUN 2082
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POSITIVE DRIVERS •
RSP majority win —
historic political stability signal •
Record IPO interest
(2.76M applicants for Shikhar Power) •
Strong post-election
market surge (+6% in single session) •
NRB's accommodative
liquidity stance •
Continued robust
remittance inflows supporting BFI liquidity •
SSF corpus crossing Rs
102 Bn — growing institutional base •
Retail investor base at
all-time high (63 lakh accounts) |
RISK FACTORS •
Post-election
correction risk (profit-booking Falgun 26) •
Rising NPLs in banking
sector (4.86% in Q1) •
Finance &
Development Bank indices in downtrend •
NEPSE market cap
declined from Rs 45.57 Kharba (Jan) to Rs 44.66 Kharba (Feb) •
High speculative
valuations in micro-finance scripts •
Government formation
process may take weeks — uncertainty window •
AML grey-list exit
process still incomplete |
9. SS HOLDINGS' PREDICTIONS — CHAITRA 2082 & BEYOND
|
DISCLAIMER:
The following predictions are SS Holdings' analytical views based on
available data and historical patterns. They do not constitute investment
advice. All investment decisions should be made based on individual risk
appetite and due diligence. |
Macro Index
Forecast
We anticipate NEPSE to trade within a range of 2,750 – 3,050
points through Chaitra 2082, with the base case being a gradual upward drift
toward 2,900–3,000 as government formation progresses. The pace of RSP's
cabinet formation and early policy signals will be the primary determinant. A
Finance Minister appointment with market-friendly credentials could trigger a
secondary rally pushing the index toward the 3,000 mark.
|
SECTOR |
OUTLOOK |
RATIONALE |
|
Hydropower |
BULLISH |
RSP's pro-energy agenda,
record IPO interest in power companies, and Nepal's growing energy export
opportunities all favour the sector. Expect sustained buying interest in
quality hydropower scripts. |
|
Banking |
NEUTRAL |
NPL resolution will
determine the trajectory. If NRB's mid-term review introduces targeted credit
support, the sector could re-rate upward. Watch the Monetary Policy Review
closely. |
|
Life
Insurance |
BULLISH |
Strong premium income growth
(Rs 111 Bn+), SSF institutional flows, and sector's outperformance on
election day indicate sustained interest. Long-term fundamentals remain
solid. |
|
Microfinance |
CAUTIOUS |
Valuations remain stretched
for many counters. Rural credit stress and regulatory scrutiny are ongoing
concerns. Selective positions only — focus on companies with clean books. |
|
Development
Banks |
NEUTRAL/BULLISH |
The sector showed strength
in the post-election rally. Political stability typically benefits regional
development finance. Monitor government's fiscal policy stance. |
|
Manufacturing |
BULLISH |
Palpa Cement listing and
increasing infrastructure spending under a stable RSP government could drive
a multi-quarter re-rating of manufacturing stocks. |
|
Hotels
& Tourism |
BULLISH |
Post-election stability,
Nepal's growing tourism appeal, and Hotel Forest Inn's fresh NEPSE listing
add momentum. Budget season spending may further support this sector. |
|
Real Estate |
WATCH |
New mandatory company-based
transaction rules (effective Falgun 25) create uncertainty short-term but may
institutionalise and formalise the sector over time. |
Key Catalysts
to Watch in Chaitra 2082
•
RSP government formation & Finance Minister
appointment — single biggest market catalyst.
•
NRB Mid-Term Monetary Policy Review — watch for signals
on policy rate adjustment and credit growth targets.
•
Q2 FY2082/83 financial results of listed companies —
earnings season will test whether fundamentals match market optimism.
•
SEBON's Dual ISIN Directive approval — could improve
market transparency and institutional confidence.
•
Shikhar Power Development allotment — secondary market
listing will be closely watched for premium/discount to issue price.
•
Sopan Pharmaceuticals, Snow Rivers Limited, Yambaling
Hydropower upcoming IPOs — primary market demand will signal retail liquidity
levels.
•
AML grey-list exit progress — any positive FATF
announcement could trigger meaningful FDI interest.
10. CLOSING REMARKS FROM SS HOLDINGS
|
Falgun 2082 will be remembered
as the month Nepal's political and financial histories converged
dramatically. From a cautious pre-election
consolidation to a historic triple-circuit-breaker day, from IPO records
being shattered to a post-rally correction, Falgun offered every shade of
market emotion. At SS Holdings & Investment, we believe the structural
story for Nepal's capital markets has turned decisively more positive —
provided the RSP government delivers on its stability promise and translates
popular mandate into investor-friendly policy. We urge our investors and partners to
remain focused on fundamentals, diversify across quality sectors, and resist
the temptation of speculative chasing. Chaitra promises to be equally
dynamic, and we will be with you every step of the way. With conviction and care, SS Holdings & Investment
Pvt. Ltd. Falgun 2082 | Lalitpur,
Nepal |
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